The chase

Nine-Tailed Fox
OGN-303*/298 · showcase
$3624.82
≈1 in 161 boxes

Daughter of the Void
OGN-299*/298 · showcase
$3114.31
≈1 in 161 boxes

Bounty Hunter
OGN-309*/298 · showcase
$1526.25
≈1 in 161 boxes

Blind Monk
OGN-304*/298 · showcase
$1359.58
≈1 in 161 boxes

Loose Cannon
OGN-301*/298 · showcase
$1266.68
≈1 in 161 boxes

Swift Scout
OGN-307*/298 · showcase
$1055.43
≈1 in 161 boxes

Radiant Dawn
OGN-306*/298 · showcase
$910.50
≈1 in 161 boxes

Unforgiven
OGN-305*/298 · showcase
$865.14
≈1 in 161 boxes

Relentless Storm
OGN-300*/298 · showcase
$834.06
≈1 in 161 boxes

Herald of the Arcane
OGN-308*/298 · showcase
$686.30
≈1 in 161 boxes

The Boss
OGN-310*/298 · showcase
$659.67
≈1 in 161 boxes

Hand of Noxus
OGN-302*/298 · showcase
$545.66
≈1 in 161 boxes
Set anatomy
Sticker EV
$277
Every card at market price. The number everyone quotes — and nobody receives.
After fees and bulk
$174
Selling fees applied per card, and anything under $1.86 valued as bulk, because listing it loses money.
The median box
$79
Half of boxes do worse than this. The average is dragged up by chases almost nobody opens.
What 8,000 simulated boxes returned
9% of boxes beat their $246 price
Played staples from this set
red = boxes that lost money · ▌ box price · clipped at the 98th percentile
p10 $32 · p25 $49 · median $79 · p75 $119 · p90 $204
luckiest $4645 · unluckiest $4 · skew 5.7 (a long right tail: the average is held up by boxes almost nobody opens)
Buy a sealed case (12 boxes) and the per-box median rises to $139 and the odds of clearing $246 a box go from 9% to 19%. Volume does not change the average — it just stops one box deciding your outcome.
Who this box is for
Playable is the floor you can reliably realise; collectible is the ceiling you mostly do not hit. A set leaning hard collectible pays out rarely and hugely.
| Tier | In set | Per box | Specific card | Avg | Median | Spread (sd) | Share of EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 88 | 168 | 1 in 1.2 boxes | $0.16 | $0.11 | ± $0.26 | 10.0% |
| Uncommon | 84 | 72 | 1 in 2 boxes | $0.28 | $0.17 | ± $0.49 | 7.3% |
| Rare | 84 | 42 | 1 in 3 boxes | $1.26 | $0.31 | ± $3.31 | 19.1% |
| Epic | 42 | 6 | 1 in 7 boxes | $10.45 | $3.83 | ± $16.32 | 22.6% |
| Secret / SP | 54 | 0.33 | 1 in 161 boxes | $341.60 | $13.02 | ± $717.50 | 41.1% |
Of 288 singles in a box, about 11 are worth listing on their own. The other 277 are bulk: fees exceed their price.
Structure: 24 packs × 14 cards (7C/3U/2 rare-slot); epic replaces a rare ~1-in-4 packs, alt art ~1-in-12, secrets/SP ~1-in-72. Community-observed rates (cardgamer, TechRaptor, Harlequins). Riot publishes no official collation. A red median marks a tier whose average is more than double it — there, the average describes a card you will probably not pull. Fees follow TCGplayer’s published schedule and assume single-card sales; moving cards as one lot beats this. The guaranteed foil and the room card are not modelled, so these figures read low.
Does price follow scarcity?
Expected copies of one given printing per box — the real measure of how hard a specific card is to pull, rather than the rarity printed on it. Scarcest first, so prices should fall going down.
No inversions here — price tracks scarcity cleanly through every tier.
