The chase

Wuju Bladesman - Starter
OGS-019/024
$20.52
≈1 in 1.0 boxes

Lady of Luminosity - Starter
OGS-021/024
$11.23
≈1 in 1.0 boxes

Flash
OGS-011/024
$5.02 · 50 decks
≈1 in 1.0 boxes

Dark Child - Starter
OGS-017/024
$3.91
≈1 in 1.0 boxes

Lux, Crownguard
OGS-014/024
$3.56
≈1 in 2 boxes

Annie, Stubborn
OGS-010/024
$3.38
≈1 in 1.0 boxes

Annie, Fiery
OGS-001/024
$1.40 · 1 decks
≈1 in 2 boxes

Might of Demacia - Starter
OGS-023/024
$0.98
≈1 in 1.0 boxes

Yi, Honed
OGS-009/024
$0.96
≈1 in 2 boxes

Final Spark
OGS-022/024
$0.95 · 1 decks
≈1 in 2 boxes

Recruit the Vanguard
OGS-015/024
$0.86 · 2 decks
≈1 in 1.0 boxes

Garen, Commander
OGS-013/024
$0.76
≈1 in 2 boxes
Set anatomy
Sticker EV
$478
Every card at market price. The number everyone quotes — and nobody receives.
After fees and bulk
$240
Selling fees applied per card, and anything under $1.86 valued as bulk, because listing it loses money.
The median box
$239
Half of boxes do worse than this. The average is dragged up by chases almost nobody opens.
What 8,000 simulated boxes returned
Played staples from this set
outcome distribution, clipped at the 98th percentile
p10 $191 · p25 $213 · median $239 · p75 $266 · p90 $291
luckiest $401 · unluckiest $116 · skew 0.2 (a long right tail: the average is held up by boxes almost nobody opens)
Buy a sealed case (12 boxes) and the per-box median rises to $240. Volume does not change the average — it just stops one box deciding your outcome.
Who this box is for
Playable is the floor you can reliably realise; collectible is the ceiling you mostly do not hit. A set leaning hard collectible pays out rarely and hugely.
| Tier | In set | Per box | Specific card | Avg | Median | Spread (sd) | Share of EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 5 | 168 | 1 in 1.0 boxes | $1.28 | $0.38 | ± $2.09 | 45.1% |
| Uncommon | 3 | 72 | 1 in 1.0 boxes | $0.51 | $0.42 | ± $0.32 | 7.6% |
| Rare | 8 | 42 | 1 in 1.0 boxes | $5.21 | $2.18 | ± $7.16 | 45.8% |
| Epic | 8 | 6 | 1 in 2 boxes | $1.17 | $0.85 | ± $1.01 | 1.5% |
Of 288 singles in a box, about 55 are worth listing on their own. The other 233 are bulk: fees exceed their price.
Structure: 24 packs × 14 cards (7C/3U/2 rare-slot); epic replaces a rare ~1-in-4 packs, alt art ~1-in-12, secrets/SP ~1-in-72. Community-observed rates (cardgamer, TechRaptor, Harlequins). Riot publishes no official collation. A red median marks a tier whose average is more than double it — there, the average describes a card you will probably not pull. Fees follow TCGplayer’s published schedule and assume single-card sales; moving cards as one lot beats this. The guaranteed foil and the room card are not modelled, so these figures read low.
Does price follow scarcity?
Expected copies of one given printing per box — the real measure of how hard a specific card is to pull, rather than the rarity printed on it. Scarcest first, so prices should fall going down.
Flagged rows break the ladder: something harder to pull trades below something easier. In a game people actually play, that is demand for playability outrunning demand for rarity.

Budget gems: played often, priced near bulk