The chase

Baron Nashor
UNL-238/219 · showcase
$1828.46 · 29 decks
≈1 in 110 boxes

Scorn of the Moon
UNL-234*/219 · signature
$1529.86
≈1 in 110 boxes

Deceiver
UNL-235*/219 · signature
$965.21
≈1 in 110 boxes

Gloomist
UNL-232*/219 · signature
$632.51
≈1 in 110 boxes

Piltover Enforcer
UNL-229*/219 · signature
$629.15
≈1 in 110 boxes

Virtuoso
UNL-226*/219 · signature
$603.80
≈1 in 110 boxes

Bloodharbor Ripper
UNL-228*/219 · signature
$567.33
≈1 in 110 boxes

Pridestalker
UNL-227*/219 · signature
$542.81
≈1 in 110 boxes

Bashful Bloom
UNL-230*/219 · signature
$490.63
≈1 in 110 boxes

Wuju Master
UNL-231*/219 · signature
$445.29
≈1 in 110 boxes

Keeper of the Hammer
UNL-237*/219 · signature
$422.49
≈1 in 110 boxes

Green Father
UNL-233*/219 · signature
$399.52
≈1 in 110 boxes
Set anatomy
Sticker EV
$223
Every card at market price. The number everyone quotes — and nobody receives.
After fees and bulk
$149
Selling fees applied per card, and anything under $1.86 valued as bulk, because listing it loses money.
The median box
$63
Half of boxes do worse than this. The average is dragged up by chases almost nobody opens.
What 8,000 simulated boxes returned
18% of boxes beat their $175 price
Played staples from this set
red = boxes that lost money · ▌ box price · clipped at the 98th percentile
p10 $27 · p25 $41 · median $63 · p75 $110 · p90 $415
luckiest $2970 · unluckiest $4 · skew 4.0 (a long right tail: the average is held up by boxes almost nobody opens)
Buy a sealed case (12 boxes) and the per-box median rises to $135 and the odds of clearing $175 a box go from 18% to 33%. Volume does not change the average — it just stops one box deciding your outcome.
Who this box is for
Playable is the floor you can reliably realise; collectible is the ceiling you mostly do not hit. A set leaning hard collectible pays out rarely and hugely.
| Tier | In set | Per box | Specific card | Avg | Median | Spread (sd) | Share of EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 74 | 168 | 1 in 1.1 boxes | $0.08 | $0.08 | ± $0.04 | 6.0% |
| Uncommon | 63 | 72 | 1 in 1.5 boxes | $0.17 | $0.11 | ± $0.33 | 5.5% |
| Rare | 60 | 42 | 1 in 2 boxes | $0.72 | $0.22 | ± $1.39 | 13.5% |
| Epic | 36 | 6 | 1 in 6 boxes | $6.67 | $1.69 | ± $9.44 | 17.9% |
| Alt art | 36 | 2 | 1 in 18 boxes | $9.40 | $6.12 | ± $9.57 | 8.4% |
| Secret / SP | 37 | 0.33 | 1 in 110 boxes | $326.63 | $186.02 | ± $403.68 | 48.7% |
Of 290 singles in a box, about 10 are worth listing on their own. The other 280 are bulk: fees exceed their price.
Structure: 24 packs × 14 cards (7C/3U/2 rare-slot); epic replaces a rare ~1-in-4 packs, alt art ~1-in-12, secrets/SP ~1-in-72. Community-observed rates (cardgamer, TechRaptor, Harlequins). Riot publishes no official collation. A red median marks a tier whose average is more than double it — there, the average describes a card you will probably not pull. Fees follow TCGplayer’s published schedule and assume single-card sales; moving cards as one lot beats this. The guaranteed foil and the room card are not modelled, so these figures read low.
Does price follow scarcity?
Expected copies of one given printing per box — the real measure of how hard a specific card is to pull, rather than the rarity printed on it. Scarcest first, so prices should fall going down.
No inversions here — price tracks scarcity cleanly through every tier.
